The supply is bullish and the methanol trend is firm

On July 29th, the main methanol contract for 1309 opened at 2,695 yuan per ton and surged to a new record high during the trading session. The intraday peak reached 2,728 yuan per ton, while the low was 2,688 yuan per ton. The closing price settled at 2,721 yuan per ton, marking an increase of 28 yuan from the previous day’s settlement. The trading volume stood at 2,910 hands, with open interest rising by 160 hands to 5,686. In the spot market, prices saw a modest upward trend, with the port market benefiting from the strong futures performance. However, most operators remained cautious, as new production prices from major northwestern producing areas had yet to be announced. On that day, Jiangsu canning reported prices between 2,690–2,750 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton. Shandong prices were listed at 2,430–2,500 yuan per ton, with the lower end increasing by 10 yuan per ton. Guangdong prices remained steady at 2,690–2,700 yuan per ton. Meanwhile, the CFR China price rose by $1 per tonne to $368–370 per tonne. The formaldehyde market remained stable, with no changes in pricing observed in regions like Shandong and Hebei. Acetic acid prices held steady, but negotiation activity remained weak. The dimethyl ether market showed sluggish demand, with inventory levels still low and little change in consumer needs. Despite the rising market prices, downstream demand remained relatively passive, and resistance to accepting goods became more noticeable. However, production levels remained positive, and some scheduled maintenance activities had not yet been completed. As a result, it is expected that prices will remain stable in the near term. On July 29th, the early trading price tested the 5-day simple moving average (SMA). After finding support at this level, the price gained momentum and pushed higher, reaching new peaks. While the overall trend remains strong, the 2,730 yuan per ton level faced temporary pressure. Traders are advised that short-term and long-term positions may only yield partial profits. Market participants are closely watching key levels around 2,700 and 2,730 yuan per ton, as these could either provide support or signal a potential breakout—both scenarios would carry significant implications for future price movements.