On September 6th, the latest weekly analysis report from Nisshin Shinkansen, a well-known spot trading platform, revealed mixed trends in China’s steel market. This week, domestic prices for billet, scrap, and imported iron ore saw a slight decline, while coal and coke continued to show upward momentum. Domestic iron ore prices remained relatively stable, with a minor drop in the price of imported iron ore. As of this Friday, the procurement price for 66% Fe fine powder at Tangshan Steel Plant in Hebei Province stayed around 1,070 yuan per ton. Meanwhile, the plant’s production volume increased by 100,000 tons to reach 6.15 million tons, while domestic mine output decreased by 100,000 tons to 400,000 tons. In Liaoning Province, the price of 66% Fe fine powder fell by 10 yuan to 980 yuan per ton.
Turning to raw materials, domestic coke prices experienced a slight increase. As of this Friday, the price of secondary metallurgical coke (A: 13.5%) in Shanxi reached approximately 1,140 yuan per ton, while primary metallurgical coke (A: 12.5%) was quoted at 1,260 yuan per ton. In Hebei and Liaoning, primary metallurgical coke prices climbed to between 1,410 and 1,430 yuan per ton, up by 30 yuan per ton. The inventory of 10 major coking plants in Tangshan remained at 550,000 tons.
This week, the coal market saw an overall rise. Shanxi Coking Coal Group raised its main coking coal prices by 20 yuan, with Tunlan main coking coal reaching 1,080–1,130 yuan per ton (by rail). Hebei Kaiyuan Group increased its main coking coal prices by 5 yuan to 1,045 yuan per ton, while Henan Pingdingshan Coal Coking Group raised its prices by 30 yuan to 1,120 yuan per ton. Similarly, Heilongjiang Longco Coal Group increased its main coking coal prices by 30 yuan to 1,300 yuan per ton. Although coal and coke prices have risen, the pressure on steel producers is gradually increasing. Analysts expect a steady rise in the coke market over the next week, with coking coal prices likely to stabilize in the short term.
Due to rising coke prices, the production costs of domestic steel mills increased again this week. For rebar produced by steel mills with an annual capacity of more than 10 million tons, the cost rose to about 3,661 yuan per ton, up by 13 yuan per ton from last week. Mills with a capacity of 5–10 million tons saw their rebar production costs rise to 3,569 yuan per ton, an increase of 14 yuan per ton. Small-scale mills reported a cost of 3,485 yuan per ton, up by 14 yuan from the previous weekend. Meanwhile, the average market price of third-grade rebar was 3,627 yuan per ton, down by 26 yuan per ton from the previous week, reflecting the cost of raw materials from 20 days ago. As a result, small and medium-sized steel mills are operating with low profit margins.
In terms of inventory, with falling steel prices, large and medium-sized steel mills have shown reduced enthusiasm for purchasing iron ore and scrap, keeping stock levels stable. However, some mills continue to raise prices due to early-stage inventory shortages, maintaining stable stock levels.
Starting from August 30th, China will implement a 3% MFN tax rate on lignite imports. Analysts estimate that lignite accounts for about 20% of China’s coal imports, and since 2013, the average import price has been around $52 per ton. The new tax is expected to add approximately 10 yuan per ton to the cost, which could slow the growth of coal imports.
In August, iron ore shipments from Brazil and Australia increased by 4.94% and 9%, respectively. According to Nisshin Shinkansen, major mining companies such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, and Vale have been conducting frequent tenders, most of which are scheduled to be shipped in mid-September. It is expected that China’s iron ore imports will see a significant increase in October. Additionally, Rio Tinto recently completed its first shipment of iron ore from its newly expanded facilities in Western Australia, signaling a potential surge in supply and increased pressure on the iron ore market.
Despite the traditional “golden September, silver October†period, after nearly one and a half months of recovery, the contradiction between overcapacity and tight funding in the steel market has become more apparent. Price increases have been modest, and the market is beginning to enter a phase of uncertainty. As a result, steel buyers are becoming less enthusiastic, focusing on maintaining existing stock levels. Imports of iron ore, steel billets, and scrap are expected to face slight adjustments. Currently, coal and coke prices remain relatively low, but they are expected to continue rising steadily in the short term.
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