The steel market in Shanghai continues to face heavy pressure, with downward trends persisting. Looking at the weekly rebar market, the K-line chart for the main contract RB1310 shows a two-week decline, with the price center gradually shifting lower. Last week, the opening price was 3,391 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 3,442 yuan/ton, a low of 3,382 yuan/ton, and closing at 3,424 yuan/ton. Compared to the previous week, the closing price rose by 15 yuan/ton or 0.44%. The trading volume stood at 5,215,154 contracts, down 7.3% from the prior week, while open interest decreased slightly by 0.9% to 1,779,256 lots.
On the industry data front, China's total import and export value for January to May reached 10.51 trillion yuan (about $167.62 billion), representing a 10.9% year-on-year increase after adjusting for exchange rate factors. Exports totaled 5.51 trillion yuan ($878.56 billion), up 13.5%, while imports were 5 trillion yuan ($797.69 billion), rising 8.2%. The trade surplus was 507.94 billion yuan ($80.87 billion). In May alone, the total value of imports and exports came to 2.15 trillion yuan ($345.11 billion), up 0.4% from the previous month. Exports increased by 1% to 1.14 trillion yuan ($182.77 billion), while imports fell by 0.3% to 1.01 trillion yuan ($162.43 billion), resulting in a trade surplus of 127.84 billion yuan ($20.43 billion).
According to National Bureau of Statistics data, the national consumer price level in May 2013 rose by 2.1% year-on-year, with an average increase of 2.4% from January to May. The CPI fell by 0.6% compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, the factory gate price index for industrial producers dropped by 2.9% year-on-year in May, down 0.6% from the previous month. The purchase price of industrial products also declined by 3.0% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6% from the prior month. From January to May, the factory gate price for industrial products fell by 2.1%, while the purchase price dropped by 2.3%.
In May 2013, the added value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 9.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than April’s growth rate by 0.1 percentage points. On a monthly basis, the added value grew by 0.62% compared to the previous month. From January to May, the overall added value of large-scale industries rose by 9.4% year-on-year.
Fixed asset investment across the country (excluding rural households) reached 13.11 trillion yuan from January to May, up 20.4% year-on-year, a slight slowdown of 0.2 percentage points from the first four months. In May, fixed asset investment increased by 1.43% on a monthly basis.
Real estate development investment nationwide reached 2.6798 trillion yuan from January to May, up 20.6% year-on-year. However, the growth rate slowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to January to April. New housing starts increased by 1.0%, but the growth rate fell by 0.9 percentage points. Land acquisition by real estate developers decreased by 13.1% year-on-year, with the decline rate increasing by 4.5 percentage points. Land transaction prices saw a 3.7% growth, down 6.9 percentage points from the first four months.
Steel production in China from January to May 2013 totaled 426.16 million tons, up 10.8% year-on-year. In May alone, production was 99.19 million tons, up 11.3% from the same period last year. The daily average output reached 2.942 million tons, up 0.7% from the previous month, marking a new record high.
According to customs data, China imported 1.25 million tons of steel in May, down 21,000 tons from the previous period. The daily average import volume fell by 4.8%, while year-on-year imports decreased by 61,000 tons, a daily drop of 4.6%. Steel exports reached 5.41 million tons, down 148,000 tons from the previous period, with a daily decrease of 5.8%. Steel billet imports stood at 50,000 tons, with zero exports, maintaining high levels. The net export volume of crude steel was 4.376 million tons, down 144,000 tons from the previous period, with a daily average price 6.3% lower than last year. Year-on-year exports increased by 261,000 tons, or 6.3%.
In the spot market, the Myspic Composite Index started the week higher but then declined, ending at 127.26 points, down 0.40% from the previous week. The decline has slowed, with initial rebounds in steel and raw material prices improving sentiment. Some product prices rose, but as rebar futures weakened, trading volumes contracted, and the rebound in the steel market was insufficient. Prices for major products fell again. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, steel prices continued to decline, with light trading volumes and a bottoming pattern still in place. As of last Friday, the average prices for 6.5mm Q235 high-line and 25mm HRB400 rebar in 28 major cities were 3,443 yuan/ton and 3,440 yuan/ton respectively, down 41 and 45 yuan/ton from the previous week.
Regarding inventory, the national rebar inventory in major cities was 7.84 million tons. Compared to the previous week (June 7, 2013), it fell by 60,700 tons, a 0.77% decrease, narrowing the decline. Compared to the same period in 2012 (June 15, 2012), it increased by 75.53 million tons, or 10.66% year-on-year, with the year-on-year increase continuing to narrow.
In terms of raw materials, domestic iron ore prices remained stable last week, with steady increases in iron ore imports. Some domestic steel mills made small purchases due to high demand and relatively low prices of imported iron ore. Inventory levels remain cautious, with most businesses waiting and watching.
Looking ahead, this week is affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with limited site inventory and faster spot shipments. Some areas have seen slight price reductions. On the futures side, the main rebar contract RB1310 remained bearish in the first two weeks. The contract continued to fall in the week before the holiday, with long and short positions competing around the 3,400 level. However, the overall trend remains weak, suggesting further downside potential. Traders are closely watching the 3,400 support level; if it breaks, short positions may continue to follow.
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