Analysts expect that China's steel producers will face price declines in the coming months as demand in the construction market may begin to decline and the impact will spread to upstream sectors such as spot iron ore, coking coal and sea freight.
Comprehensive media reported on November 9 that analysts said on Monday that after four years of double-digit growth, it is estimated that China's steel demand will turn moderate next year, as the Chinese government has imposed restrictions on the purchase of multiple homes since September. Control the size of the developer's land and tighten the credit supply.
In China, steel demand in the construction industry accounts for half of total steel demand. China is also the largest producer of construction steel. In 2009, China's construction steel production accounted for about 46% of the global market.
Analysts said that the current government measures to regulate the real estate market have significantly affected steel output. In the past two years, driven by the Chinese government's 4 trillion economic stimulus plan, the civilian and commercial buildings in major cities have risen sharply, and steel demand has increased sharply. increase.
Scott Laprise, an analyst at broker CLSA, said that as far as Beijing is concerned, we have noticed that construction activities are not as active as before.
The analyst expects China's apparent steel demand growth to fall to 5-7% next year, and China's steel demand growth is expected to be 10% this year. China's steel demand growth will fall back and will continue to fall. Construction activity will slow as developers try to slow down their development and expect higher prices.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange rebar has been in the reverse price differential for the last four months.
Analysts said that infrastructure-related construction activities will also slow down. Most analysts expect China's steel demand growth to be around 6% next year. Some analysts expect China's steel demand growth rate to be 11% this year.
This may mean that Baosteel, Angang and Maanshan Iron and Steel companies will be lagging behind next year.
Analysts said that many steel producers are facing pressure to cut production next year as the government is trying to curb capacity expansion in high-energy industries, after the government has ordered about 2,000 steel producers to close capacity in the third quarter.
According to industry sources, the closure of production capacity caused by energy-saving and emission reduction measures and the reduction of inventories by consumers will support steel prices.
Morgan Stanley analyst Charles Spencer said that on the supply side, China's measures to cut capacity in high-energy industries will lead to a reduction in excess production, which will lead to a decline in net steel exports.
A survey of five analysts has shown that analysts expect China's steel output to increase by 4-7% next year, while steel demand this year is expected to increase by 10.5% to 625 million tons.
China United Steel Co., Ltd. cited the China Steel Association's ten-day report that the daily crude steel output in October fell slightly by about 2% from the previous month to 1.586 million tons, mainly due to the continuous energy conservation and emission reduction and the annual maintenance of steel mills.
But even if steel producers cut production to near-demand levels, China's macroeconomic growth may still fall, as China has raised interest rates on deposits and loans last month, and interest rate hikes will lead to a slowdown in construction and economic growth.
For every ton of steel produced, 1.6 tons of iron ore and 0.6 tons of coking coal are required. It is estimated that the sales of these commodities, such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Brazil's Vale, will slow down sales to China next year.
The slowdown in demand for iron ore and coking coal will result in sea freight rates, especially dry bulk sea freight on Asian routes.
China Iron and Steel Association said last month that China's iron ore imports in 2010 were lower than the 627.8 million tons in 2009. China's iron ore imports jumped 41%.
Ian Roper, a commodities analyst at CLSA, said that other countries' consumer iron ore stocks have helped iron ore prices stabilize this year, but it is estimated that next year's spot iron ore prices are expected to fall to $90 per tonne.
However, iron ore prices rebounded sharply by about 30% from the seven-month low hit in July this year to $153 per tonne, although Chinese steel producers are not eager to purchase raw materials due to weak demand prospects.
Since the fourth quarter, coking coal prices have risen 74% year-on-year to US$209 per tonne. Before that, the world's largest coking coal supplier turned its 40-year annual contract pricing mechanism into a quarterly contract pricing mechanism.
An analyst at Scotia Capital said that the Chinese government's plan to build 15.2 million affordable housing by 2012 is an important part of steel demand next year, which is estimated to consume about 25 to 40 million tons of steel.
Comprehensive media reported on November 9 that analysts said on Monday that after four years of double-digit growth, it is estimated that China's steel demand will turn moderate next year, as the Chinese government has imposed restrictions on the purchase of multiple homes since September. Control the size of the developer's land and tighten the credit supply.
In China, steel demand in the construction industry accounts for half of total steel demand. China is also the largest producer of construction steel. In 2009, China's construction steel production accounted for about 46% of the global market.
Analysts said that the current government measures to regulate the real estate market have significantly affected steel output. In the past two years, driven by the Chinese government's 4 trillion economic stimulus plan, the civilian and commercial buildings in major cities have risen sharply, and steel demand has increased sharply. increase.
Scott Laprise, an analyst at broker CLSA, said that as far as Beijing is concerned, we have noticed that construction activities are not as active as before.
The analyst expects China's apparent steel demand growth to fall to 5-7% next year, and China's steel demand growth is expected to be 10% this year. China's steel demand growth will fall back and will continue to fall. Construction activity will slow as developers try to slow down their development and expect higher prices.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange rebar has been in the reverse price differential for the last four months.
Analysts said that infrastructure-related construction activities will also slow down. Most analysts expect China's steel demand growth to be around 6% next year. Some analysts expect China's steel demand growth rate to be 11% this year.
This may mean that Baosteel, Angang and Maanshan Iron and Steel companies will be lagging behind next year.
Analysts said that many steel producers are facing pressure to cut production next year as the government is trying to curb capacity expansion in high-energy industries, after the government has ordered about 2,000 steel producers to close capacity in the third quarter.
According to industry sources, the closure of production capacity caused by energy-saving and emission reduction measures and the reduction of inventories by consumers will support steel prices.
Morgan Stanley analyst Charles Spencer said that on the supply side, China's measures to cut capacity in high-energy industries will lead to a reduction in excess production, which will lead to a decline in net steel exports.
A survey of five analysts has shown that analysts expect China's steel output to increase by 4-7% next year, while steel demand this year is expected to increase by 10.5% to 625 million tons.
China United Steel Co., Ltd. cited the China Steel Association's ten-day report that the daily crude steel output in October fell slightly by about 2% from the previous month to 1.586 million tons, mainly due to the continuous energy conservation and emission reduction and the annual maintenance of steel mills.
But even if steel producers cut production to near-demand levels, China's macroeconomic growth may still fall, as China has raised interest rates on deposits and loans last month, and interest rate hikes will lead to a slowdown in construction and economic growth.
For every ton of steel produced, 1.6 tons of iron ore and 0.6 tons of coking coal are required. It is estimated that the sales of these commodities, such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Brazil's Vale, will slow down sales to China next year.
The slowdown in demand for iron ore and coking coal will result in sea freight rates, especially dry bulk sea freight on Asian routes.
China Iron and Steel Association said last month that China's iron ore imports in 2010 were lower than the 627.8 million tons in 2009. China's iron ore imports jumped 41%.
Ian Roper, a commodities analyst at CLSA, said that other countries' consumer iron ore stocks have helped iron ore prices stabilize this year, but it is estimated that next year's spot iron ore prices are expected to fall to $90 per tonne.
However, iron ore prices rebounded sharply by about 30% from the seven-month low hit in July this year to $153 per tonne, although Chinese steel producers are not eager to purchase raw materials due to weak demand prospects.
Since the fourth quarter, coking coal prices have risen 74% year-on-year to US$209 per tonne. Before that, the world's largest coking coal supplier turned its 40-year annual contract pricing mechanism into a quarterly contract pricing mechanism.
An analyst at Scotia Capital said that the Chinese government's plan to build 15.2 million affordable housing by 2012 is an important part of steel demand next year, which is estimated to consume about 25 to 40 million tons of steel.
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