Butadiene prices fluctuate sharply

Since the second half of this year, the domestic butadiene market has fluctuated. In July and August, the average price of butadiene in China was basically operating at 29,761 yuan (ton price, the same below) and 29,737 yuan. In September, the market price fell rapidly and fell to the low price of 13,500 yuan in early November, a drop of more than 50%. The difference between the highest price in August and the lowest price in November reached 16,500 yuan, setting the highest price spread in recent years.

In late November, the butadiene market “turned back and forth” and began to rebound. The price at the end of November was 17,500 yuan, which was an increase of 4,000 yuan compared with November 9. In December, prices continued to rise. The price in mid-December was 18,500 yuan, which was 5,000 yuan more than in early November.

The domestic butadiene market has risen and fallen with the Southeast Asian market. From July to August, the market price of butadiene in Southeast Asia was strong. After the price in early August hit a new high of US$4215 in recent years, the price dropped month by month. The average price in November was only US$1,678, which was a drop of 78.2% from July. The decline in butadiene prices in Southeast Asia was significantly higher than in the domestic market. The price drop in Southeast Asia has affected the domestic butadiene market to a certain extent.

In the first half of the year, Sinopec’s production of styrene-butadiene rubber increased by 17.29% over the same period of last year, and the production of butadiene rubber increased by 4.08% compared with the same period of last year. The increase in demand and the inertial stimulation of the prices of synthetic rubber and other products resulted in the continuous creation of butadiene prices in July and August. The new high has created favorable conditions. After entering the second half of the year, due to the high price of butadiene and the centralized maintenance of downstream manufacturers, the demand for butadiene gradually decreased and the price dropped.

Butadiene prices have dropped continuously, and the drop has been huge. Producers have suffered large losses. The value of butadiene products has been seriously underestimated by the market. Under the stimulation of the first rebound in butadiene prices in Southeast Asia, domestic butadiene prices began to rebound. , And then stimulated by the good news of reducing the bank deposit reserve, the price further increased sharply.

Recently, butadiene prices have rebounded strongly. Under the circumstances that the European debt crisis is difficult to escape, the domestic economic growth is slowing down, and the CPI has fallen slightly, coupled with the recent decline in demand at the end of the year, the sharp increase in butadiene prices will be suppressed. . However, due to the early butadiene prices oversold, and with the gradual digestion of domestic butadiene inventory, at the bottom of the basic proven phase prices, manufacturers are not willing to cut prices, is expected this winter and next spring The price of olefins will be in a situation of pressure and support.

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