OPEC cuts world oil demand forecast for next year

The latest international petroleum market report issued by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintains an increase in world oil demand of 900,000 barrels per day in 2011, but lowered its forecast for world oil demand in 2012 by 100,000 barrels per day. The main reason for the expected downward adjustment is that OPEC is concerned that the economic growth of the OECD countries and regions will slow down and may further affect the economic trends of emerging economies, which will affect the overall consumption of the world’s oil next year.

OPEC expects that the world economy will reach 3.6% this year and next. The report reduced the economic growth rate of OECD countries and regions in 2012 from 1.7% previously to 1.5%. Among them, the United States next year's economic growth rate was reduced to 1.7%, the euro zone economic growth rate was reduced to 0.4%, Japan's economic growth was reduced to 1.9%. The report lowered the growth rate of India's economy to 7.5% in 2012, but increased the Chinese economy's growth rate to 8.7% next year. OPEC believes that the current downside risk of the world economy is very clear, the European debt crisis, the economic trend of the United States and developing countries need to pay close attention.

Due to the decline in crude oil production in countries such as Australia, Syria, Sudan and Azerbaijan (94.38, 0.50, 0.53%), OPEC expects crude oil production by non-OPEC oil-producing countries to increase by 200,000 barrels per day in 2011, a decrease of approximately 5 percent from the previous month’s report. Millions of barrels. In 2012, crude oil production in non-OPEC oil-producing countries is expected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day, and the increased production will mainly come from the United States, Brazil, Canada, Colombia and Russia.

In 2011, the international market demand for OPEC crude oil was 30 million barrels per day, an increase of 300,000 barrels per day compared to 2010. In 2012, the demand for OPEC crude oil in the international market will increase to 30.1 million barrels per day. In November, OPEC crude oil production was approximately 30.37 million barrels per day, an increase of 56 million barrels from the previous month. The report predicts that OPEC and non-traditional oil production are expected to increase by 400,000 barrels per day in current and next year.

The international refined oil market continues to recover. With the arrival of winter, the increase in consumer demand has injected vitality into the mid-distillate market, but this is still insufficient to compensate for the market loss of light distillates. As gasoline consumption in Europe and the United States continues to be weak, and global petrochemical industrial product demand is also insufficient, the price of light distillate products continues to decline, and global oil refining profits also decline.

In November, the U.S. commodity oil reserve decreased by 20.3 million barrels to 1.045 billion barrels, of which crude oil and refined oil reserves were reduced by 4.7 million barrels and 15.60 million barrels, respectively. This is also the third consecutive decline in U.S. commodity oil reserves. The U.S. reserve level in November was already 9.1 million barrels lower than the average reserve level in the past five years. At the same time, the latest data show that in October, Japan’s commodity oil reserves decreased by 600,000 barrels, to 178.2 million barrels, of which refined oil reserves decreased by 1.7 million barrels, crude oil reserves increased by 1.1 million barrels, and crude oil reserves increased 7.6 points over the same period of last year. %.

In early November, OPEC oil prices began to rise, and soon exceeded 110 US dollars / barrel, and thereafter maintained at this price fluctuations. This is the first time that OPEC’s daily average oil price has broken through $110 since July this year. The main factors driving the rise in oil prices are the deterioration of the European debt crisis, the tight geopolitical situation and the improvement of the US economic index. In November, the transaction price of international crude oil** also rose significantly. In particular, the US crude oil exchange price reached US$97.16/barrel, an increase of US$10.73, which was the largest increase since March of this year. During the same period, the trading price of Brent crude oil in the UK increased by 1.7 US dollars to reach US$110.49/barrel. Compared with the same period of last year, the crude oil price in the US market rose by 15.2%, and the British Brent crude oil exchange price rose by 28.2%.

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