The polysilicon market will die?

Abstract The 2014 edition of the International Photovoltaic Technology Roadmap (ITRPV) predicted that monocrystalline silicon wafers would capture approximately 50% of the crystalline silicon market by 2024. However, some Asian PV industry players have raised concerns and offered alternative views. They argue that due to a steady decline in non-silicon production costs for monocrystalline wafers, these wafers are poised to challenge the long-standing dominance of polycrystalline silicon. Longji’s new chairman, Zhong Baoshen, even claimed that non-silicon costs for monocrystalline wafers could drop to $0.06 per watt within three years. China remains a global leader in solar cell manufacturing, but one critical issue that continues to be overlooked is the reliance on low-cost modules. Many Chinese PV companies focus too much on the system cost per watt, which leads to a limited understanding of actual electricity generation costs. This lack of depth in evaluating system longevity and power output per watt may hinder long-term competitiveness. As the solar market shifts eastward, particularly in Japan, the share of Chinese solar exports has been increasing significantly. This trend puts pressure on low-cost and inefficient manufacturers, as market subsidies shift from ground-mounted to rooftop installations, which require higher-performance components. Japanese consumers, in particular, prefer high-efficiency crystalline silicon products, further emphasizing the need for innovation and quality. Even in China’s ground-mounted power plants, where construction costs remain relatively low, monocrystalline systems are about 2% more expensive than polycrystalline ones. However, in distributed projects with higher construction costs, the price gap between the two technologies is nearly negligible. In high-cost regions like Japan and Germany, monocrystalline systems are already cheaper than their polycrystalline counterparts. Since monocrystalline cells are more efficient, their electricity generation cost is actually lower than that of polycrystalline cells, despite the latter's initial perception of being cheaper. When considering variable costs and the real power generation premium, monocrystalline wafers contribute between $0.48 and $0.789 more than polycrystalline wafers. This value exceeds the price difference of around $0.29 between monocrystalline and polycrystalline wafers (as of 2013 data). Currently, the mass production efficiency of polycrystalline cells ranges from 17% to 17.5%, while N-type monocrystalline cells have industrialized at 21% to 24%. Domestic P-type monocrystalline cells operate at 18.7% to 19.2%, and overseas versions reach 19.2% to 20%. In terms of cost, in Q1 2014, monocrystalline modules had an efficiency of 16.6% and a cost of $0.47 per watt. It was projected that by 2017, monocrystalline module efficiency would rise to 17.7%, with costs dropping to $0.37 per watt. For polycrystalline modules, Q1 2014 efficiency was 15.7%, costing $0.45 per watt, and it was expected to reach 16.5% by 2017 with a cost of $0.37 per watt. By 2017, monocrystalline silicon modules are expected to be as cost-competitive as polycrystalline ones. At that point, the so-called cost advantage of polycrystalline silicon will no longer exist, and the entire solar manufacturing sector will face significant transformation.