Abstract Core Tip: The latest data from China Steel Association shows that in the first half of June, the national crude steel output was estimated at 2.156 million tons, an increase of 0.19 million tons, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month. Fubao Information believes that the crude steel Nissan has returned to the uptrend after a decline of two decades, indicating that the steel mill is overhauling...
Core Tip: The latest data from China Steel Association shows that in the first half of June, the national crude steel output was estimated at 2.156 million tons, an increase of 0.19 million tons, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month. After the two-day decline, the crude steel Nissan has returned to the upward trend, indicating that the steel mills have very few inspections and production reductions. The steel mills have no intention to reduce the supply to promote the steel market. The supply will continue to constrain the steel. The price stopped falling and rebounded. [hot spot reading]
â— China Steel Association: In the first half of June, the national average crude steel output was estimated at 2,563,000 tons.
According to the latest statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel of key enterprises in the first half of June was 1,731,800 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons, an increase of 1.3% from the previous month; the national output of crude steel was estimated to be 2,156,300 tons, an increase of 0.19 million. Tonnes, the ratio increased by 0.1% in the first quarter, and rebounded again after the continuous two-year reduction. At the same time, the data also showed that the inventory of steel enterprises in the first half of June was 12.867 million tons at the end of the year, which was 117,000 tons less than the end of the previous year. The inventory reduction was not obvious.
Interpretation: From the data released by the above-mentioned China Steel Association, it can be seen that the crude steel Nissan has returned to the uptrend after a decline of two decades, although the range is only 0.1%, but it continues to increase in the already high output, which is undoubtedly It also added a negative to the market. At the same time, this also indirectly indicates that the current steel mills have very few inspections and production reductions. The steel mills have no plans to reduce the supply to promote the steel market to improve. From the inventory of steel enterprises at the end of June, the reduction is not obvious, steel enterprises and social stocks will continue to restrict the rebound of steel prices. The only thing worth looking forward to is that the current national environmental protection efforts are increasing, resulting in the valuation of crude steel production of non-key enterprises in the first half of June decreased by 20,000 tons from the previous month to 425,000 tons. Although this part of the production is not large, but its value has also passed a slight positive for the market.
â— Experts say: the central government releases monetary policy and does not relax
The State Council executive meeting held on the 19th proposed to guide credit funds to support the real economy; to maintain a sound monetary policy, to play well, to maintain a reasonable amount of money, to optimize the allocation of financial resources, and to use incremental and revitalized stocks. Experts said that this statement released the orientation of monetary policy not to relax.
Interpretation: Recently, market funds have suddenly emerged, causing rumors of “reduction of interest rates†and “reduction of standardsâ€. However, the content of the Standing Committee of the State Council yesterday showed that short-term monetary policy will remain relatively stable. In this regard, Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that the "consistent monetary policy to adhere to" proposed by the State Council executive meeting implied that the monetary policy is not relaxed, and the policy space lies in "playing well." Liu Yuhui, chief economist of Huatai Securities and director of the Key Laboratory of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that the current efficiency of currency operations has been seriously declining, and the marginal efficiency of money-driven economic growth is getting lower and lower. Fubao Information believes that the current slowdown in economic growth is the inevitable result of the reform, and the tightness of funds is also mainly due to the decrease in foreign exchange holdings. There is no need for adjustment of monetary policy, so short-term stability is still the dominant trend.
ã€related news】
â— Loss increased, the stock price broke, and the steel company's financing space narrowed.
High output and high inventory bring low stock prices with low steel prices - the vicious circle of the steel industry is adding to the financing of listed steel companies. Due to the increase in losses of steel enterprises, the steel stock price has become a mat. Among the stocks traded yesterday, 8 of the 15 listed companies with the lowest share price belonged to the steel industry. According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, 17 out of 34 steel listed companies broke net at yesterday's closing price, with a net loss of 50%. The steel companies' funds are stretched, and their profitability is low. The stock price of the secondary market has fallen below the net assets and become another stumbling block for steel enterprises.
â— Bernanke: The possibility of ending QE in mid-2014 is greater
In the early morning of June 20th, Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke held a press conference after releasing the latest monetary policy. The reporter’s question naturally focused on when to start reducing quantitative easing (QE) until the end, Bernan Ke pointed out that the most likely situation is to shrink from the end of this year, and eventually stop QE sometime in 2014. Bernanke made it clear that the above inference is based on a slightly more optimistic economic expectation that the US economy will still achieve accelerated growth during the fiscal policy tightening period, and the unemployment rate will continue the slow decline since September last year, while the inflation rate is slow. Approaching the target value of 2%, these are the basic conditions for his prediction of ending QE in the middle of next year.
â— "Coal and electricity mutual insurance" upgrade: Hunan's purchase of provincial coal and provincial power
In order to protect the interests of the province's coal enterprises, power generation companies are required to preferentially purchase coal produced in the province; in order to ensure the market space of power generation companies, power companies are required to strictly limit electricity purchases from outside the province. In the “coal and electricity mutual insurance†chain in Hunan Province, the government’s presence is becoming more and more concentrated.
[panel summary]
On June 19, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 206.04 points to close at 15,112.19 points, down 1.35%; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 38.98 points to close at 3,443.20 points, down 1.12%; the S&P 500 index fell 22.88 points. It closed at 1,628.93 points, a decrease of 1.39%. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), light crude oil futures for July delivery fell 20 cents to close at $98.24 a barrel, down 0.2%. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) Commodity Exchange (COMEX) rose $7.10 to close at $1,374 per ounce, or 0.5%. The US dollar index rose 0.68 to close at 81.4, an increase of 0.84%. Copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell $14 to close at $6,976, a drop of 0.2%.
[Market analysis]
On June 19, the snail 10 opened 3,348, oscillated higher throughout the day, broke through the 3500 platform, the highest in the day was 3530, and the 3526 rose 43%, 1.23%, the funds were more than the previous day, the transaction volume was enlarged compared with the previous day, and the positions increased. 180,000 hands. Technically, the daily low of the K-line rallied higher and closed higher, surpassing the 20-day moving average, and paying attention to the 30-day moving average pressure in the short term. The KDJ indicator is strong, and the MACD indicator red column continues to enlarge. The spot gains have slowed slightly. Operation on both sides of the band operation, pay attention to the 3500 platform competition. The snail shock during the material period has a general impact on the spot.
[Steel Market News]
â—Ore: The iron ore market continued to rise on the 19th. In terms of the Platts Index, the general index rose by 2.75 US dollars yesterday, and the current 62% Australian powder index is 120 US dollars / ton. In terms of imported mines, the current GO platform has sold 5 PB powders, and the price has continuously climbed to US$121/ton. However, the purchase of steel mills is still cautious, and it is not excluded that large businesses are speculating in the market, and they are cautious in the short term. The current reference price for the port in Shandong is 720-730, special powder 730-740, Yangdi 740-750, and pb powder 830-840. In terms of domestic iron fines, the price of the minerals has become more apparent, and the market price has risen steadily. However, except for a small increase in the purchase price, most steel mills are still cautious in purchasing iron powder, and traders are more difficult to operate. Heavy volume. Now Zunhua 60% coarse powder 680-700; 66% fine powder wet base does not include tax 790-800; 62.5% pellets 920 or so; Qian'an 66% fine powder wet base does not include tax 805-815.
â—Steel billet: On the 19th, Tangshan's finished products rose slightly, and the transaction improved. The downstream purchase of blanks was normal. Because the billet resources available in the market were tight, the merchants were reluctant to sell. However, at present, Tangshan's mainstream warehouse billet inventory is still as high as 800,000 tons, compared with 340,000 tons in the same period last year. The phenomenon of resource shortage is mostly caused by man-made, and the off-season is coming, the downstream demand will slow down, and the continued upward momentum is insufficient. Stable. After the afternoon, the billet rose by 30, Tangshan Guoyi, Xinglong and other ordinary carbon billet including tax 2,980 yuan / ton, low alloy 3,100 yuan / ton, dealers ordinary carbon bare price 2,860 yuan / ton; Changli tax included to Tangshan 3000 yuan /Ton.
◠Coke: 19th 邯郸 secondary metallurgical coke to the factory tax price of 1190 yuan / ton, Pingdingshan secondary metallurgical coke factory price tax included 1230-1250 yuan / ton, Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke to the factory tax price 1290-1320 yuan / ton, Rizhao secondary metallurgical coke to the factory tax price of 1,260 yuan / ton, Linyi second metallurgical coke factory tax price of 1100-1130 yuan / ton, Wuhai second metallurgical coke factory tax price of 1030 yuan / ton, Huaibei The secondary metallurgical coke ex-factory tax price is 1,300 yuan / ton, the Qitaihe second-grade metallurgical coke ex-factory price is 1,300-1,350 yuan / ton, the Yinchuan three-level metallurgical coke ex-factory price is 880 yuan / ton, Tianjin Port secondary metallurgy Jiaopingcang included a tax price of 1,360-1,400 yuan / ton, the coke market continued to weaken, some steel mills continue to cut the purchase price, the business of Jiao enterprises is difficult, and the market outlook is more pessimistic, it is expected that the market outlook is still difficult to pick up.
â—Building materials: On the 19th, the price of the third-grade big snail of Hegang in Beijing market was 3390 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the previous day; the Shanghai market Zhongtian second-class big snail 3220-3260 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Guangzhou The market Guanggang's second-class big snail was 3,470 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day.
â— Sheet: On the 19th, the Shanghai market hot coil closing price was 3440-3470 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton from the previous day; Tianjin market hot coil closing price was 3380-3400 yuan / ton, maintained from the previous day Smooth; Lecong market hot-roll closing price of 3550-3570 yuan / ton, basically the same as the previous day.
[Today's forecast]
â—Building materials: Yesterday, the trend of domestic building materials was different. The area that was pulled up was insufficiently adjusted due to lack of demand. The southwest and Central China market were lagging behind and the transactions were general. Recently, the country has high temperatures and frequent rainfall, and terminal demand is weak. In the first half of June, the daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 1,731,800 tons, an increase of 1.3% from the previous month. The supply pressure was not reduced. However, considering the raw material support, the price of the third-grade big snail of Hegang in Beijing market is 3380-3390 yuan/ton. It was weaker than the previous day; the Shanghai market Zhongtian second-class big snail 3220-3260 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day; Guangzhou market Guangzhou Steel second-class large snail 3470 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day.
â— Sheet: In the market, yesterday's domestic hot-rolling was weak and stable. The high-end resources in Shanghai in East China generally declined. The mainstream prices in North China and South China were basically stable. However, the high weather continued, the downstream demand was weak, and the transactions in various markets were generally poor. In addition, steel mills began to increase resources, and market supply pressures continued to increase. However, considering that the Tangshan billet rose by 30 yuan/ton in the afternoon, and the long-term late-stage plate was obviously high, both of which formed a positive for the hot-rolled spot, so it is expected that the national hot-rolling volume will become stronger. Shanghai market 5.5mm mainstream offer 3460-3490 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 5.5mm Tangshan mainstream offer 3390-3410 yuan / ton; Lecong market 5.5mm Liugang mainstream offer 3560-3580 yuan / ton.
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