This issue introduces:
â— Market review: the futures surged and confidence increased, and the overall steel price rose in July;
â—Supply analysis: The environmental protection policy is normal high pressure, and some steel enterprises are limited in environmental protection;
â— Demand analysis: real estate investment performance is acceptable, social stocks decline in the off-season;
â— Cost analysis: coke prices fell in four rounds, and ore prices fluctuated;
â— Macro analysis: Sino-US trade is gradually heating up, and fiscal stimulus is expected to be exerted;
â—Comprehensive view: In August, the domestic market was in a state of supply and demand. On the one hand, the national environmental protection policy was normalized, the supply of market resources remained low, and the statistics of social stocks declined. On the other hand, high temperature and hot summer continue to interfere with outdoor construction, infrastructure construction investment has declined significantly, some housing companies have difficulty financing, shed reform policy changes and clean-up non-compliance projects, and terminal demand has been suppressed. Based on the high pressure normalization of the environmental protection policy, the country released the loose signal, the market confidence increased significantly, and the market sentiment fluctuated.
Market review: steel prices rose overall in July
First, the market review article
In the first half of July, under the influence of high temperature and rainy weather, the terminal outdoor construction is difficult to carry out, the market business feedback is light, and the prices of leading steel mills such as Shagang are flat, and the market is mainly consolidating. In mid-July, hot and hot weather was mostly hot, terminal outdoor construction time was shortened, and downstream procurement demand continued to be limited. However, environmental protection and production in Hebei Tangshan and other places increased, black futures futures trended strongly, Tangshan billet and major steel mills increased prices, mentioning The market is bullish and the market price is rising steadily. In late July, all parts of the country officially entered the market, and the transaction performance was general. After the main contract of the main screw rushed to 4000 points, it fell back. The market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and the steel market price continued to rise.
The main reason for the overall increase in domestic steel prices in July, the author believes that there are mainly the following reasons. First, the national environmental protection policy continued to exert strength, environmental protection control measures were frequently released, and environmental protection policies normalized to boost market confidence. Second, the production of steel enterprises in Hebei, Jiangsu and other places is limited, the supply of new resources in the market is still low, the statistics of the stocks of society and steel mills are decreasing, the sales pressure of steel traders is not there, and the inventory resources of steel mills are low. Third, the black futures trend was strong, and the main contract of the period screw rushed to more than 4,000 points, leading the market spot price to climb higher. Fourth, the recent regular meeting of the State Council further confirmed the marginal easing of monetary policy. Under the expectation of fiscal policy in the second half of the year, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to rebound.
In summary, domestic steel prices fluctuated in July, so what is the trend of steel prices in August 2018? Social stocks declined slightly in July, and will there be an increase in stocks in August? Whether the environmental protection policy is still strong, and how will the impact of some steel enterprises resume production? How do the prices of coke and iron ore raw materials behave? With many questions, let's look at the analysis report of domestic construction steel market in August 2018.
Second, supply analysis articles
1. Analysis of current status of domestic construction steel inventory
Monitoring inventory data shows that as of July 26, the total inventory of major domestic steel products was 9.936 million tons, a decrease of 359,900 tons from the end of June, a decrease of 3.41%, an increase of 380,000 tons or 3.98% over the same period of last year. Among them, the stocks of thread, wire, hot-rolled, cold-rolled and medium-sized plates were 4,480,400 tons, 1,415,200 tons, 2,167,200 tons, 1,185,500 tons and 957,700 tons, respectively, down 14.84%, 11.85% and 2.49 points from the end of June. %, increased by 2.34% and increased by 7.55%. This month, the overall inventory of thread and wire rods declined, and the inventory of hot-rolled, cold-rolled and medium-sized plates declined slightly.
From the perspective of steel mills, according to the China Steel Association data, as of the end of July, the steel stocks of key enterprises were 115.746 million tons, an increase of 75,500 tons or 0.66%. Compared with the end of the first half of June, it decreased by 665,400 tons, a decrease of 5.44%. Compared with the same period of last year, it decreased by 1,368,300 tons, a decrease of 10.57%. Compared with the same period of last year, the national steel market inventories increased by 641,100 tons, steel mills' inventories decreased by 1.37 million tons, and the market inventories and steel mills inventories decreased by 702,000 tons compared with the same period of last year, compared with a decrease of 140,000 tons last month. The inventory of the industrial chain continued to decrease, and the destocking of the market and steel mills was more obvious, and it also provided support for the domestic steel price trend this month.
2. Analysis of the status quo of domestic steel supply
Judging from the production situation of steel mills, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in January-June 2018 was 451.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. In June, China's crude steel daily output was 2.673 million tons, up 2.15% from the previous month, and it has reached a record high for three consecutive months. In June, China's crude steel output was 80.2 million tons, an increase of 7.5%. In June, China's steel output was 95.51 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year. In June, the average daily output of steel was 3.183 million tons, up 1.67% from the previous month. From January to June, China's steel output was 530.85 million tons, up 6.0% year-on-year.
According to the preliminary data of China Steel Association, the daily output of 96 key monitoring steel enterprises (group caliber) in the first ten days of July 2018 and the increase and decrease in the first ten days were: 1,744,400 tons of crude steel, an increase of 19,400 tons in the same period of the previous month. 0.99%.
3. Analysis of the status quo of domestic steel import and export
From the data of steel import and export, the data of the General Administration of Customs shows that in June 2018, China exported 6.944 million tons of steel, an increase of 134,000 tons, an increase of 2.0%; an increase of 61,000 tons, an increase of 0.9%. From January to June, China's cumulative export of steel products was 35.426 million tons, down 13.2% year-on-year. In June, the import of steel products was 1.04 million tons, a decrease of 9.0 million tons from the same period of last year, down 8.0%; the chain was reduced by 94,000 tons, down 8.3%. From January to June, the country imported a total of 6.67 million tons of steel, down 1.9% year-on-year.
4. Expected construction steel supply next month
On the whole, in June, the average daily output of crude steel in China was 2.673 million tons, up 2.15% from the previous month, and it has reached a record high for three consecutive months. In the first half of the year, China's crude steel output was 451.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. In the first ten days of July, the average daily output of crude steel of key enterprises was 1,974,400 tons, an increase of 0.99% from the previous month. At the moment, the domestic weather is hot and hot, but the steel mills have taken the initiative to stop production and repair less. It can be seen that the domestic spot price continues to rise, the profitability of steel mills remains high, the operating rate of blast furnaces remains relatively high, and the resumption of production of some steel enterprises is expected to start. It is expected that the average daily output of crude steel will remain high in August.
Third, the demand situation articles
1. Analysis of sales trend of construction steel in Shanghai
In July, the domestic steel market was in an off-season demand, and the high temperature and heat were not good for outdoor construction, and the terminal procurement demand was generally good. According to the weekly purchase data of the Shanghai line in July, the weekly purchase volume increased first and then decreased. The purchase at the end of the month increased slightly from the beginning of the month, with a growth rate of 0.95% and a year-on-year increase of 2.05%. However, due to the relatively loose fiscal policy of the state, the black futures market is strong, bringing confidence to the market. Under the influence of the spot increase in the off-season, some end-users are stocking in advance to offset the pressure on the price. Recently, social stocks have declined slightly. It can be seen that the overall terminal demand is not too bad. It is expected that short-term terminal purchases will maintain a relatively stable level.
2. Analysis of domestic construction investment quota
Statistics Bureau data show that from January to June 2018, the national real estate development investment was 555.3 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 9.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points from January to May. From January to June, the construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 709.649 million square meters, up 2.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than that in January-May. From January to June, the land acquisition area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 110.85 million square meters, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 5.1 percentage points higher than that of January-May. From January to June, the real estate development enterprises had a capital of 792.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points from January to May.
In June 2018, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 51.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the average of 0.2 percentage points in the first half of the year, and the overall manufacturing industry continued to expand. In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 52.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and staying above the critical point; the medium-sized enterprise PMI was 49.9%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and falling below the critical point; small enterprises The PMI was 49.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and still below the critical point. From the classification index, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, the new order index and the supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, and the raw material inventory index and the employee index are below the critical point.
3. Expectation of construction steel demand next month
Although the growth rate of real estate investment in 1-6 shares declined slightly, the real estate construction area and real estate land purchase area increased slightly, and the real estate market investment remained relatively high. Recently, the domestic monetary policy has been loose, and the meeting of the National Standing Committee has further released the signal of easing. The investment funds for infrastructure construction will be improved in the second half of the year, which will facilitate the release of terminal purchases. On the whole, terminal procurement demand will usher in further improvement in August.
Fourth, cost analysis articles
1. Analysis of raw material cost
The prices of raw materials in July were mixed, with coke prices falling sharply in four rounds; domestically produced mineral prices rose partially, and imported ore prices fluctuated; billet prices rose sharply, and scrap prices rose steadily. According to the monitoring data, as of July 26, the ex-factory price of ordinary carbon billet in Tangshan area was 3,760 yuan/ton, up by 180 yuan/ton from the end of last month; the scrap price in Jiangsu was 2,260 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the end of last month. / ton; the price of secondary coke in Shanxi is 1,850 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton from the end of last month; the price of 65-66 taste dry iron powder in Tangshan is 665 yuan / ton, an increase of 25 yuan from the end of last month / Tonne; Platts 62% iron ore index is 65.45 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollar / ton from the end of last month.
In terms of varieties, domestic billet prices rose to a new high in the year in July. From the market point of view, the environmental protection policy of Tangshan District of Hebei continued to exert strength, and the production of many steel enterprises was affected, but the spot price of finished products was higher, which encouraged the market confidence of the billet market, and the market price increased slightly. From the inventory point of view, according to Tangshan Xiangyu Zhengfeng inventory statistics, in early July, billet inventory was 160,000 tons, followed by inventory in mid-July fell to 149,000 tons, and billet inventory increased slightly in late July, as of July 26th. The inventory is 187,000 tons. According to market statistics, as of 8:30 am on July 26, Tangshan Xiangyu Zhengfeng's total inventory was 189,000 tons, including billet inventory of 187,000 tons. In addition, from 8:00 am on July 25 to 8:00 am on July 26, the total storage capacity was 0.38 million tons, including 0.38 million tons of steel billets, with a total output of 0.12 million tons, including 0.12 million tons of steel billets. It is expected that the market price of steel billets will fluctuate within a narrow range next month.
In July, the domestic coke market fell sharply, and accumulated a total of four rounds of decline, the cumulative decline of 300-400 yuan / ton, some steel companies in the fifth round of the rise, but the market wait and see atmosphere. From the market point of view, the current environmental protection situation in Hebei is severe, but the overall focus of coke enterprises is less affected by environmental protection. The steel enterprises in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province have already resumed production of individual steel mills, and the remaining coke enterprises are also actively resuming production. The profitable space is still acceptable, the operating rate of coking enterprises is at a relatively high level, and the overall coke supply is relatively loose. For steel enterprises, Jiaojiao's enthusiasm for delivery is generally good. Some steel mills are interested in controlling the volume of goods. At the same time, some port stocks have increased slightly, which led to a sharp fall in the price of this month. Overall, the price of coke in the early period has risen too fast. The market has adopted a price reduction promotion, and the coking market has shown a rise and then a correction. It is expected that the domestic coke price will slow down or show a consolidation trend next month.
Domestic scrap prices rose steadily in July, and the market transactions were average. From the market point of view, the price of finished products continued to rise, and rose to a relatively high level after the year, greatly encouraging the scrap market. At the same time, the mainstream steel enterprises in East China were mainly stable, and the arrival volume remained low. Some small and medium-sized enterprises took the price increase and drove the market price higher. The scrap resources in North China are relatively tight, and the situation of steel scrap sales is not satisfactory. The market price has increased slightly. In addition, the procurement demand for scrap steel in Chengdu and Chongqing in the southwest is good, with an increase of 50-80 yuan/ton; the rest of South China and China are moderately strong. It is expected that the scrap market price will stabilize in the next month.
In July, the domestic iron fines market was generally strong, especially in the main producing areas. Mainly due to serious air pollution in Hebei, mining enterprises in Tangshan and surrounding areas are limited in environmental protection, iron fines resources are relatively tight, and prices in Tangshan, Qian'an and Wu'an have risen slightly. The price of imported iron ore rose volatility this month. As of July 26, the 62% iron ore index of Platts was US$65.45/ton, up by US$0.8/tonne month-on-month. Recently, the RMB exchange rate broke through the 6.8 mark, virtually increasing the import cost of iron ore, superimposing the decrease in the arrival of short-term port ore, and the impact of rising prices of finished products and futures. The price of imported ore has fluctuated. In addition, the ore stocks of major domestic ports are around 1.54 billion tons, which are still at a relatively high level. Most steel enterprises adopt on-demand procurement strategies to curb the increase in import prices to some extent. It is expected that the price of the imported ore market will fluctuate slightly in the next month.
In July, the BDI index showed an overall upward trend. As of July 25, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) closed at 1772 points, up 387 points or 27.94% from the end of last month. According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to June, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 18.86 million deadweight tons, down 28.9% year-on-year, of which the sea-going vessel was 6.15 million revised gross tons; the newly-accepted ship order volume was 22.7 million deadweight tons, up 97.2% year-on-year. The sea boat was revised to a total of 6.25 million tons. As of the end of June, the order volume of hand-held ships was 91.07 million DWT, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. In the first half of the year, China's shipbuilding completions, new orders, and hand-held orders accounted for 41.7%, 51.9%, and 45.4% of the world market share, respectively. Compared with the same period of last year, it decreased by 2.3 percentage points, an increase of 9.5 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points. It is expected that the BDI index will continue to show an upward trend next month.
2. Analysis of ex-factory price of construction steel in major areas
This month, domestic steel plate leading enterprises Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, Anshan Iron and Steel, Hegang and other products have successively introduced the price policy in August, in which the prices of hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil, rolled hard coil, galvanized and pickled remained unchanged. It can be seen that the price of sheet steel mills has remained firm. In view of the price adjustment of construction steel mills, the price adjustments of many steel mills in early July were not large, mostly based on steady or small adjustments; in mid-July, futures and spot prices rose, and many steel mills raised the price rhythm, July. In the latter half of the year, a number of price adjustment steel mills once again had more flats. From the price policy of Shagang in the leading steel mills in Jiangsu Province, the price remained unchanged in the first ten days of July, and 150 yuan/ton in the middle of the year, and 100 yuan/ton in the latter part of the year. Considering the recent surge in spot price, the market confidence is generally stronger, and it is expected to be August. The policy will be further raised in the first half.
3. Expectation of construction steel cost next month
In summary, domestic coke prices fell sharply in July, the country's major coke enterprises completed four rounds of decline, the cumulative decline was 300-400 yuan / ton, some steel enterprises in Shanxi opened the fifth round of decline, the recent coke fell sharply is the steel mill The main reason for the slight decline in costs. The overall operation of domestic mines is strong, especially the main production areas of domestic mines are inhibited by environmental protection, and the supply of resources is significantly reduced. The rise in the exchange rate of the renminbi has increased the cost of importing minerals, and the arrival of the port has temporarily decreased, which has caused the import of ore to fluctuate. Overall, the continued decline in coke will shrink, and the price of imported ore will remain small and volatile, and the cost of construction steel will stabilize in the next month.
V. Macro analysis
First, the Sino-US trade war friction continues to escalate
On July 11, the US Trump administration announced a further tariff list for China, and proposed to impose a 10% tariff on about 200 billion US dollars of Chinese products, involving seafood, agricultural products, fruits, and daily necessities. The proposed tariff list is 195 pages long and will go through a two-month process. The Trump administration will take further action after the end of the public comment period on August 30. This is after the Sino-US exchange of tariffs on the $34 billion product on July 6, after a lapse of five days, the Sino-US trade war escalated further. On July 25th, US President Trump recently condemned China in his social media message, saying: "China is targeting our farmers. They know that I love and respect farmers, so I use farmers to force me to allow them to continue to take advantage of the US. Their evil will be a failed attempt. We used to be good, until now! China made $517 billion in us last year."
Second, continue to carry out the central environmental protection inspector "Look back"
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will strictly implement the "Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War", improve the regulatory system and the scientific and technological standards system, strengthen supervision and law enforcement, and deepen the reform of the environmental governance system. Among them, in the aspect of supervision and law enforcement, the central environmental protection inspector will continue to carry out “reviewingâ€, carry out intensive supervision of air pollution prevention and control in key areas, and severely punish and severely punish ecological and environmental crimes according to law. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued a notice to resolutely fight the three-year action plan for pollution prevention and control in the industrial and communications industries. The notice requires that by 2020, the industrial added value energy consumption of enterprises above designated size will be reduced by 18% compared with 2015, and the water consumption per unit of industrial added value will decrease by 23% compared with 2015. The excess capacity will be reduced and the new areas will be strictly prohibited. , flat glass, coking, electrolytic aluminum, casting and other production capacity.
Third, maintain macroeconomic policy stability and keep the economy running in a reasonable range
The executive meeting of the State Council held on the 3rd was a final tone, releasing a signal of comprehensive easing. Not only does it propose a more proactive fiscal policy, but it also points out that a sound monetary policy should be tight and moderate, and that reasonable financing needs should be guaranteed. A series of "steady growth" measures will escort the sustained and healthy economic development. It is required to maintain the stability of the macro policy, insist on not engaging in the "strong flood irrigation" type of strong stimulus, according to the situation, the camera pre-adjusts the fine-tuning and directional control, responds to the uncertainty of the external environment, and keeps the economic operation in a reasonable range. Fiscal and financial policies should work together to serve the real economy more effectively and serve the macroeconomic situation more effectively. Active fiscal policy should be more active, focusing on tax cuts and fees. A sound monetary policy should be moderate. Leading financial institutions will use the RRR cuts to support small and micro enterprises, market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps, etc. Resolutely clear out "zombie enterprises" and reduce the use of invalid funds.
Fourth, the restructuring of central enterprises in the second half will continue to increase
On July 26th, the Chinese government website issued the Notice of the General Office of the State Council on Adjusting the Composition of the Leading Group for the State-owned Enterprises Reform of the State Council. Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council, was appointed as the leader of the State-owned Enterprise Reform Leading Group. It is reported that the pace of restructuring of central enterprises and local state-owned assets is accelerating. This year, Guangdong, Shanxi, Sichuan and other places have introduced reform plans for state-owned enterprises, taking mergers and acquisitions as an important means of optimizing assets, and proposing specific "road maps" and "timetables". Many provinces also issued the “responsibility†of state-owned enterprise reform, and the reforms in various regions have accelerated, and the mergers and acquisitions of state-owned enterprises have entered an intensive period. On the other hand, the reform of mergers and acquisitions of central enterprises is also accelerating.
Sixth, the international market articles
According to the comprehensive processing data, the international rebar market showed mixed performance in July, the US import price rose slightly, the European market increased and decreased, and the Asian market was stable. The specific data is as follows:
European and American markets: Compared with the same period in June, the prices of US steel mills continued to be stable, and the import price rose by US$3/ton. In the same period, EU mill prices rose by $61/ton, import prices rose by $19/ton, and German market prices fell by $6/ton.
Asian market: Compared with the same period in June, the Chinese market price dropped by US$15/ton, China's export price dropped by US$50/ton; the Korean market price was flat; the Japanese market price dropped by US$8/ton, and the export price was flat. In addition, the import prices in the Middle East were flat, the export price of Turkey fell by US$5/ton, and the export price of the CIS countries fell by US$25/ton.
Billet price: Compared with the same period in June, Turkey's export offer (FOB price) fell by US$7/ton, and the CIS export black poster (FOB price) fell by US$14/ton; at the same time, the Middle East Market import prices rose by $5/ton, and Southeast Asian imports (CFR) prices increased by $5/ton.
In summary, the international steel market in July rose and fell, and China's export prices fell significantly. As global economic and trade frictions continue to heat up, steel exports from various countries are affected. It is expected that international steel prices will continue to be weak in August.
Seven, comprehensive views
A comprehensive summary of the contents of the analysis report for July 2018, the analysis believes that the basic operating conditions of domestic steel prices in August are as follows:
First, the level of demand. From January to June, the growth rate of real estate investment in the country dropped by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but the new construction and land acquisition area increased slightly from the previous month. Overall, the real estate data performance was acceptable. The growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first six months was 7.3%, which was significantly lower than the growth rate of 21.1% in the same period last year. Changes in the policy of shed reform, housing financing constraints, local financial constraints, etc., have an impact on market demand. Recently, the state has proposed a proactive fiscal policy to ensure reasonable financing needs, which will bring positive benefits to real estate and infrastructure. Considering that August is still hot and hot weather, it is expected that domestic steel market demand will continue to be suppressed next month.
Second, the supply level. The national environmental protection policy continued to exert its strength and was normalized and regionalized. Recently, weather pollution in Hebei Province is more serious. Tangshan, Wu'an and other places have successively issued relevant prevention and control policies. Steel enterprises in Tangshan and other places have requested 50% of sintering and limited production of 20%-37.1% of blast furnaces from July 20 to August 31. . In addition, steel enterprises in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province and Wuhu Xinxing Casting Pipes were reinstated, but the southern part of Jiangsu still has limited production and production stoppages. Based on the normalization of environmental protection supervision, both the heating season and the non-heating season have environmental protection and production limits. It is expected that the domestic steel market supply will remain low next month.
Third, the cost factor. In July, the national coke price continued to complete four rounds of rapid decline, with a cumulative decline of 300-400 yuan / ton. The main production areas of domestic mines were severely suppressed by environmental protection policies, the supply of new resources was significantly less, and the prices of fine powders in Tangshan and other cities rose slightly. The import mine market was fluctuated by the rise of the RMB exchange rate and the recent decline in port arrival resources. Overall, the decline in coke prices slowed down or stabilized. The domestically produced mineral prices were generally stronger, and the prices of imported ore were fluctuating. It is expected that the domestic steel price will be stable next month.
Fourth, macro factors. In the first half of this year, China's total GDP was 418.961 billion yuan, which was calculated at comparable prices, up 6.8% year-on-year. In the second quarter, the growth rate was 6.7%, and the growth rate slowed by 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter, and remained at the interval of 6.7%-6.9% for 12 consecutive quarters. The overall performance of real estate data was good, the growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to decline, and the central bank continued to release liquidity. Sino-US trade frictions have escalated from time to time and are intensifying. The national environmental protection policy continued to exert its strength and was normalized and expanded. In the second half of the year, central enterprises and local state-owned assets restructured to increase the pace, and implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy to protect the sustained and healthy economic development.
In summary, the author personally speculates on the price trend of rebar in Shanghai in August 2018. In August, the domestic market was in a state of supply and demand. On the one hand, the national environmental protection policy was normalized, the supply of market resources remained low, and the statistics of social inventories declined. On the other hand, high temperature and hot summer continue to interfere with outdoor construction, infrastructure construction investment has declined significantly, some housing companies have difficulty financing, shed reform policy changes and clean-up non-compliance projects, and terminal demand has been suppressed. Based on the high pressure normalization of the environmental protection policy, the country released the loose signal, the market confidence increased significantly, and the market sentiment fluctuated.
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