Coal-fired power price linkage to achieve a loss or change in Yunnan's thermal power next year

The day before yesterday, the State Council announced guidance on deepening the market-oriented reform of coal power. Among those focused by the industry, the opinion put forward that the dual-track system for eliminating the price of coal will be proposed. The coal-fired linkage mechanism that domestic thermal power companies have been expecting is expected to be realized next year. .

The thermal power industry in Yunnan has also faced a loss due to a series of problems such as coal-fired power generation in recent years. The introduction of this measure will help the Yunnan thermal power industry to improve its operations.

Coal price fluctuations exceeding 5% will adjust the on-grid tariff

According to the guidance of the General Office of the State Council on the deepening of the reform of the coal power market announced on the Chinese government website on December 25, the coal price linkage mechanism will be improved.

The opinion pointed out that the market-oriented reform of thermal coal is an important reform in the energy sector. We must adhere to the orientation of market orientation and give full play to the basic role of the market in allocating coal resources. With the cancellation of key coal contracts and the implementation of coal prices as the core, we must gradually establish a reasonable mechanism for the operation and regulation of coal to realize the coal and power industries. Sustained and healthy development ensures the economic needs of the economic and social development and people’s lives.

First, we will establish a new mechanism for coal production, transportation and demand. Since 2013, major contracts have been cancelled and the dual-track system for coal prices has been cancelled. The National Development and Reform Commission no longer issued an intentional framework for the inter-provincial coal railway transportation capacity allocation in the year. Coal companies and power companies have signed contracts on their own, and negotiated prices independently.

Secondly, it will improve the coal price linkage mechanism. When the price fluctuation of thermal coal exceeds 5%, the annual on-grid tariffs will be adjusted accordingly, and the proportion of fluctuations in coal price volatility adopted by power companies will be adjusted from 30% to 10%. In view of the current key contract coal and market coal prices Close to this, the overall on-grid tariff after the coal price coalition is not adjusted for the time being, and individual issues will be individually resolved depending on the situation.

The opinion also proposes that the emergency plan for dealing with abnormal fluctuations in the price of electric coal will be formulated. When the price of electric coal has abnormal fluctuations, temporary intervention measures shall be taken in accordance with the relevant provisions of the price law.

In this regard, some experts analyzed that due to the current market coal price is not high, the on-grid tariff will not be raised in the short term, and now is the best time for coal price reform. However, we must substantially promote the coal price linkage, because the "Guiding Opinion" does not have clear operational measures, still need to follow-up as soon as possible to introduce a more complete and more operational coal-fired linkage program.

Yunnan's thermal power losses may have changed

According to the news released by the Yunnan Electricity Regulatory Commission, this year, due to the decline in market demand and the rapid growth of hydropower generation and other factors, the production and operation of thermal power plants in Yunnan Province has declined rapidly. The Yunnan Electricity Regulatory Office also paid close attention to this and organized a symposium on the production and operation of thermal power generation enterprises in a timely manner. It took measures to resolve the current production and operation difficulties of thermal power generation enterprises and ensure the safe and stable operation of Yunnan Power Grid and the normal supply of electricity.

According to reports, from January to August of this year, the province's thermal power plant production status has deteriorated rapidly, generating 29.1 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. The average number of hours used by generator sets is only 2,634 hours, which is 683 hours lower than the same period last year. Nine thermal power companies were in a state of loss, with a total loss of 1.747 billion yuan, a loss of 443 million yuan over the same period of last year, a loss of 1.304 billion yuan; all thermal power companies rely on borrowing for liquidity, the net cash flow value is much lower than the amount of short-term loans, cash Extreme shortage of flow.

According to analysis by the Yunnan Electricity Regulatory Office, the main reason for the loss of thermal power companies is that the on-grid price and the price of thermal coal still do not match, followed by the low utilization rate of equipment. In addition, policy funds such as coal subsidies have not yet been issued and environmental protection standards have been issued. The increase in expenditure brought about by the increase in costs also exacerbated the degree of losses of thermal power generation companies.

However, at present, thermal power companies still play an irreplaceable role in the province's power system. The proportion of installed thermal power equipment accounts for 32.7% of the total installed capacity. Thermal power generation enterprises are still the backbone enterprises of power production in the province. The launch of the coal price linkage mechanism will change the current situation of thermal power losses.

Coal market broke the last piece of administrative ice

Guoxi Junan researcher Yin Xilong believes that the opinions released this time exceeded the market's expectations. There are two things: First, improve the linkage mechanism of coal and electricity prices, and adjust the on-grid tariff accordingly when the annual fluctuation of coal prices exceeds 5%; second, under the same conditions, The unit with low power generation price will be given priority access to the Internet, and exploration experience will be explored in order to implement bidding reform.

He analyzed that the coal price linkage mechanism reform will bring institutional dividends to the power and coal industry sectors in the capital market, and both coal and power companies are expected to achieve a win-win situation. The introduction of the "Opinions" provides institutional guarantees for future adjustments in electricity prices, and reduces the proportion of fluctuations in the price of coal consumed by power companies, reducing the risk of fluctuations in the price of coal that power companies endure; in the future, when the price of coal is high, power companies can do a better job. To achieve cost transfer. If the coal price is high and the coal and electricity parties start to wrestle before the coal price will happen again, the pressure on public opinion will be reduced.

In addition, the volatility of electricity prices realized marketization, breaking the last piece of administrative ice in the coal market, which is the key coal contract, realizing the merging of administrative prices (electricity prices, key coal) and market prices (market coal). Coal companies and power companies are all beneficial.

Wang Yang, a researcher at Industrial Securities, believes that coal prices are fundamentally determined by supply and demand. This time, coal and electricity have been combined in times of oversupply, and it is expected that the trend of weak coal prices will be hard to change in the next few years.

In the capital market, he expects 2013 coal prices will be based on the current market price, thermal power companies will benefit from this, in the stock market can focus on companies with high performance certainty, including Huaneng Power International, Huadian Power International, Guodian Power, Guangdong Electric power, Beijing Thermal Power, etc.

Zhong Guohua

News extension

Coal-fired power market reforms will not increase the cost of residential electricity

The end of this coal-fired linkage-linked transmission is the on-grid tariff, which affects the cost of power purchase by the power grid companies, while the terminal sales price involving the production of enterprises and residents' lives is not included.

Yang Zonglin, a senior engineer of the East China Power Grid Development Planning Department, said that the new regulations suggest that 90% of coal price volatility may be transmitted downstream through adjustment of on-grid tariffs. As the current scope of linkage is limited to the on-grid tariff, it does not involve the adjustment of terminal sales price. If the price of coal rises, the cost of purchasing electricity for the grid will increase, and the increase in coal prices will be borne by the grid companies, and the cost of electricity for residents will not increase.

As the current focus of contract coal and market coal prices are close, the State Council made it clear in the guidance that the overall price of on-grid electricity prices will not be adjusted for the time being. Therefore, experts expect that the domestic electricity price will remain stable in 2013 as a whole.

In the past few years, domestic coal prices continued to rise, and coal-fired electricity linkages mostly resulted in an increase in electricity prices. Li Chaolin, an expert on China's coal market, said that according to the current market conditions of the coal market, the domestic coal price may decline by about 10% year-on-year in 2013. If coal and electricity linkages are implemented smoothly, and the annual adjustment is a cycle, the domestic on-grid tariff may be adjusted downwards by 2014. Taking into account the ease of domestic inflationary pressures and the reduction of electricity costs for enterprises and residents, domestic terminal sales prices are also expected to usher in price cuts.

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