2012 is a key year for the entire 12th Five-Year Plan period. The 12th Five-Year Plan for the energy sector is also being released intensively this year. According to the reporter's rough statistics, this year, China has released more than 10 important plans for the energy industry, such as the "Shale Gas Development Plan (2011-2015)", "The 12th Five-Year Plan for Coal Industry Development", and "Nuclear Safety and Radioactive Pollution Prevention and Control "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and Vision 2020", "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development", "Notice on Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction" Twelfth Five-Year Plan, and Energy Development Twelfth Five-Year Plan "Planning", "Nuclear Power Safety Plan (2011-2020)", "Nuclear Power Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan (2011-2020)" and "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Natural Gas Development", etc., plus the coal seam released last year. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†and the “Energy Science and Technology “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†have basically been introduced in the energy industry. Among the many plans, the Energy Development 12th Five-Year Plan and the Nuclear Power Safety Plan (2011-2020) and the Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for Nuclear Power (2011-2020) are three heavyweight projects in the energy field. policy. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Energy Development" has attracted much attention because it is the "female plan" in the "12th Five-Year Plan" series of energy. The other two plans are related to the reversal of sensitive topics in nuclear power, which is affecting the nerves of the industry. This series of energy industry plans have clearly defined the future development goals in light of changes in the country's macroeconomic situation, and pointed out the direction for the development of China's energy industry during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, which will help promote the energy industry to enter the real implementation stage. Of course, there are also some “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†energy industry plans that are still “waiting for word†and have not yet been released. Among them, the most important focus is electricity. In recent years, coal prices have risen and fallen sharply, electricity price adjustments have not been in place, and large losses in the coal-fired power industry have made the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Power Industry" still under study. In addition, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for UHV Power Gridâ€, which has been widely concerned by the industry, has been reported to the National Energy Administration as early as March. However, due to the controversy over the development of UHV, it was not approved until the end of this year. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Power Grid" has not been formed, and it is also unrelated to the UHV exchange dispute. The consolidation of thermal coal prices is actually a start for coal companies. In 2012, it was a year of unrewarding, because the “Golden Decade†ended here, but it was also a very noteworthy year because of the long-awaited price of coal. The bounce window is quiet. The National Development and Reform Work Conference on December 18 revealed that in 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission will steadily push forward the price reform focusing on resource products, and integrate the implementation of key thermal coal and market coal prices into the 2013 key work of the development and reform system. It took 16 years to go to this step today. Over the years, both coal and electricity have been arguing over whether coal prices are in complete harmony with coal market prices. Under the distorted price, coal enterprises and electric enterprises are also "successful." From the self-development considerations of the two industries, the "dual-track system" of thermal coal prices has reached a state of non-reformability. Jumping out of the gains and losses of both sides, the price of the coal-fired plan that deviates from the market is not conducive to reflecting the scarcity of resources, and is not conducive to energy-saving and emission reduction in the thermal power industry. The just-concluded Party of the 18th National Congress proposed to deepen the reform of resource product prices and taxes and fees, and establish a system of paid use of resources and an ecological compensation system that reflect the market supply and demand and resource scarcity, reflect ecological value and intergenerational compensation. The electric coal market is closely related to railway transportation capacity and electricity price, and the fluctuation of electricity prices is a major event for people's livelihood. The industry generally expects that the price of thermal coal will be merged, and the coal market will take the lead in achieving complete marketization, which will force the railway capacity reform and electricity price reform with great resistance. For a long time, the key contract coal is linked to the railway transportation plan, while the unscheduled non-key contract coal transportation has to raise its own capacity. Some railway “three-product†and “multi-menage†enterprises take advantage of the opportunity to profit from it, plus the fare, The cost of coal transportation, etc., has been greatly increased. The new generation of power plants after the separation of the plant network is more hopeful for the rationalization of the coal price mechanism. After the coal price is further liberalized, the electricity price reform will be pushed to the forefront. The coal industry ended the "golden decade" all the way to the "red light" inventory, coupled with the plunge in the market price, in 2012, the "golden decade" of coal left with the thunder. Since May of this year, the country’s largest coal terminal, Qinhuangdao Port, has increased at a rate of 800,000 tons per week, and reached the highest inventory level in the past decade in mid-June. It did not fall back below 6 million tons for the first time in October. The signal of the arrival of the “turning point†in the coal industry. In addition, the reverse transferor of coal-electricity relations is even more eye-popping. In the past 10 years, thermal power plants have to assign special personnel to look for coal in Qinhuangdao Port and to pull relationships with coal companies. Now that coal companies have turned to power plants, they have to cut prices. Since May, the Bohai Sea Thermal Coal Price Index has been refreshing its lowest record since its release, with a rare “13 consecutive losses†and an overall decline of more than 20%. If the coal market reform in 2002 is the starting point, the coal industry has so far experienced the best 10 years in history. Although there was a brief downturn in the financial crisis in 2008, the coal trend has basically risen in the past 10 years. But now, such a good day has come to an end. Whether it is from the impact of imported coal, or the substitution effect of new energy and clean energy, and the pressure of energy saving and emission reduction, this conclusion is made clearer. Explain in the words of the coal companies themselves that the “golden decade†of the coal industry has experienced an era of success and glory. First, since 2000, China's industrialization process has been greatly accelerated. By 2008, the proportion of industry in GDP reached 42.94%, close to the peak of 45%. Second, the urbanization process has continued to advance. Since 2000, China's urbanization process has been progressing at a rate of 1.5 percentage points per year, reaching 51.27% in 2011. The continuous advancement of industrialization and urbanization has led to a substantial increase in fixed asset investment in the whole society. High-investment and high-energy-consuming projects such as expressways, real estate, automobiles, and heavy chemical industries have been launched, forming a huge demand for coal. However, if the economy is to be transformed, the “double high†industry should be constrained, at least not to let it go. At present, the situation of the coal industry has undergone profound changes, and the traditional investment-led growth mode has come to an end. In a nutshell, the “Golden Decade†of coal has ended, the market risk has greatly increased, and coal companies that are used to sharing China’s economic growth dividends are ready to respond. The photovoltaic industry’s hunger-seeking path has been affected by the United States and Europe this year. "Double-reverse" pinch, China's photovoltaic enterprises production and operation situation has deteriorated drastically, the entire industry by the hot and hot situation, suddenly fell into the cold winter of the industry. According to industry estimates, the operating rate of China's PV companies is currently less than 50%.
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